Indonesian Oil Prices Drop Sharply
The government set the average Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) for June 2026 at US$83.45 per barrel. This value is a significant decrease compared to May 2026, which reached US$106.56 per barrel, a correction of approximately US$22.50 per barrel.
This determination is stipulated in the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decree No. 282.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 concerning the Indonesian Crude Oil Price for June 2026.
The Director General of Oil and Gas at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Laode Sulaeman, stated that the decline in oil prices was triggered by the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East during June.
“This figure represents a significant decrease of US$22.50 per barrel compared to the previous month’s level of US$106.56 per barrel. This decrease was generally influenced by tensions between the United States, Israel, and Iran, which tended to ease throughout June,” Laode said in a written statement.
According to him, the implementation of the ceasefire and the return to normal shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to the smoother global oil distribution, putting pressure on crude oil prices on the international market.
In addition to geopolitical factors, the weakening prices are also influenced by the fundamental conditions of the global energy market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates global oil demand growth will only reach 1.1 million barrels per day, while the OPEC+ group has again increased production. Russia also plans to increase oil supply to meet the agreed production target.
This downward trend also occurred in several global oil benchmark prices throughout June 2026. Brent fell from US$103.71 to US$84.98 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell from US$98.51 to US$82.41 per barrel, Dated Brent fell from US$107.55 to US$86.13 per barrel, while the OPEC Basket fell from US$114.55 to US$91.03 per barrel.
For July 2026, the government projects the ICP to be in the range of US$67 to US$71 per barrel. However, actual prices will still be heavily influenced by developments in global supply and demand, as well as geopolitical dynamics in various regions.
“The government continues to monitor developments in the international oil market regularly to ensure price stability and national energy security are maintained. We ensure that the ICP formula remains transparent and reflects international market dynamics to maintain accountability for state finances and upstream oil and gas business activities,” Laode concluded.
